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BIL, CHGX, CLAW, CLTL, CRF, DDM, DFVL, DFVS, DIA, DLBL, DLBS, DMRL, DOG, DRA, DRN, DRV, DTUL, DTUS, DTYL, DTYS, DUSA, DXD, EDV, EEH, EGF, EPS, EQL, ESGL, FEX, FIBR, FREL, FRI, FTT, FTY, FWDD, GBIL, GOVT, GSEW, GSY, HOML, HUSV, HYDD, IARAX, ICF, IEF, IEI, ITB, ITE, IVV, IWL, IWM, IYR, JHML, JKD, JRS, KBWY, LLSC, LLSP, LRET, NAIL, NRO, OTPIX, PKB, PLW, PMOM, PSQ, PSR, PST, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, REK, RFI, RIF, RINF, RISE, RIT, RNP, RORE, RQI, RSP, RVRS, RWM, RWR, RYARX, RYRSX, SCAP, SCHH, SCHO, SCHR, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SHV, SHY, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPSM, SPTL, SPTS, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRS, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TAPR, TBF, TBT, TBX, TLH, TLT, TMF, TMV, TNA, TQQQ, TTT, TUZ, TWM, TYBS, TYD, TYNS, TYO, TZA, UBT, UDN, UDOW, UDPIX, UGA, UPRO, URE, URTY, USA, USDU, USMC, USRT, USSD, UST, USWD, UUP, UWM, VFINX, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VNQ, VOO, VTWO, VUSTX, VV, WREI, XHB, XLRE, ZF, ZROZ At the beginning of the year, I identified 5 trends that bore particular watching, primarily as potentially setting the stage for a recession in 2018.
Now that the year is ending, how did they turn out?
The below graph shows the past 20 years: I would expect to see both sales and wages stall out before the onset of the next recession.
Wage growth has weakened in recent months, and it is now barely above zero.
when I was like 6 years old (don’t ask me why) on my computer which ran on Microsoft’s Windows.
Since then, it took me awhile to get used to Apple’s mac OS and the way I did it was rather than buying the Mac itself I tried it out on my Windows PC.
So, if you want to try Apple’s mac OS on your Windows 10 too, (which I’m assuming you have already upgraded, if not you can follow this is the latest version of Mac system software right now (updated March 2017) and it brings with it a whole lot of new tweaks and changes that you might like.
Windows 10 has been hailed by many as a vast improvement over the previous generation, marrying the best features of ‘classic’ Windows with the best bits of Windows 8.
In the deflationary era that dates from the alter 1990s, if anything the two are a mirror image, but in every case but 2001 (where real wage growth just decelerated rather than declined), both have been negative going into recessions.However, no software is exempt from glitches, bugs and other assorted compatibility issues - least of all Windows 10.While it’s not as bug-riddled as previous Windows versions, there are nonetheless a series of common problems that have been persistently identified by users.Here too, the data has calmed down again, and indeed, has gone the other way: Another data point which rose sharply after the November election was interest rates.Generally speaking, home building changes in the opposite direction of interest rates.
The final graph came from my "alternate" recession forecasting model which turns on consumers running out of options to continue increasing purchases (i.e., no interest rate financing, no wage real wage increases, and no increasing assets to cash in).